We are finally turning the corner after a warm weekend headed our way. The first infusion of cold comes quickly next week (11/8), however sustained cold will begin coming in surges beginning next weekend (11/12). The pattern will be active and there are still pieces of tropical energy that are roaming around the Atlantic, therefore …
Category Archives: Bolton Valley
Additional Note on Tropics 11/1
For the last several weeks, we’ve been talking about the active tropics creating volatility in the long term. Due to the weak handling of tropical systems by models, we tend to have high variability in model runs for Days 5+, and cold surges not coming to fruition. I wanted to show you the last 4 …
Long Term Views 4/1
No April fools joke here, but we’re not seeing much of any resurgence of cold air beyond the first week of April. We’ll be seasonably cool (not cold…) into the first week of the month, but gradually have conditions moderate. The second week of the month will be more of a transition point – we …
The Week Ahead 3/28
We have a very similar pattern to last week in terms of precipitation and overall pattern structure.The core of the cold comes out of the Great Lakes Monday and settles into the Northeast for Tuesday. We’ll begin some moderation on Wednesday, with an large area of overrunning precipitation associated with the warm front moving through …
Long Term Views 3/25
The main shift in the pattern actually comes in the next 7 days – which is a substantial cool down settling in Sunday through Tuesday. Beyond this, we do have some moderation, but it is tempered just a bit. At this point in the year, cool downs are less impactful given the higher sun angle …
Hindsight of Season…
With the extreme volatility of the season and another mixed precipitation storm coming in this week, I took a quick look at where we landed in the ENSO cycle this winter. Typically, our placement in El Niño or La Niña isn’t the “end all” for the season, but there have been some correlations made that …
The Week Ahead 3/21
The first 36-48 hours of the week are rather quiet – breezy but no major precipitation to contend with. Temperatures are on the more mild side, but not warm. Clouds gradually increase from west to east Tuesday night through Wednesday with precipitation moving into the Great Lakes in the wee hours of the morning, and …
Long Term Views 3/18
The pattern continues its volatility into the end of the month. We’re going to see somewhat of a cooler pattern into next week. The AO stays fairly neutral and the NAO stays slightly negative to neutral, which does allow for the opportunity to see some pockets of cold and even snow. Of course heading into …
Weekend Storm System
The solution hasn’t been completely changed by cold, but there is a minor cold component from cold air damming for the onset in portions of ME, NH and possibly a couple spots in VT. Otherwise we’ll be seeing a mostly rain system coming through Saturday morning through Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation comes through …
The Week Ahead 3/14
This week features three pieces of energy that will impact the eastern region – the most impactful of those systems likely to come over the weekend and unfortunately, there’s not a large amount of agreement on it. First, we have an elongated boundary that’s strung out across the Great Lakes Monday afternoon, bringing light snow …