The global pattern continues its shifts with the ENSO neutral cycle taking shape and we’re going to continue on a cooler than average pattern heading through Day 14. Temperatures at the surface level (local airports) are running roughly 1-3 degrees above average so far for March, but may start skewing cooler for the last 7 …
Category Archives: Alterra
The Week Ahead 3/20
The latest ENSO cycle reading came in this morning, and we are officially in the positives, leaving La Nina fully behind since the week of February break. However, the overall atmosphere is still showing weak La Nina trends, as it takes a couple of weeks to bring the change from sea surface temperatures to the …
Long Term Views 3/17
Though cooler air settles in for the first part of next week, we’ll have moderation toward the midweek before a couple more storm systems start to ramp up. There are a few to watch – around 3/23, 3/25 and 3/28. The NAO stays close to neutral (therefore not much blocking of cold air) for 3/23 …
The Week Ahead 3/13
The week ahead has two storm systems to impact the east – one coastal system to affect the Northeast and one inside runner that is more impactful to the Great Lakes. The coastal system moves in later today with mostly snow expected from the Poconos up through northern Maine. The heaviest snowfall is expected in …
Long Term Views 3/10
We’re looking at continued seasonable or below average temperatures through the third week of March. While there are above average moments before storm systems (similar to what we are seeing today), overall temperatures remain at or below season averages – especially in the Mid-Atlantic. There’s not much anomaly when it comes to precipitation, which makes …
The Week Ahead 3/6
The week itself is fairly quiet. There’s a low pressure to our north that is somewhat stalled, and that’s what is keeping a fair amount of breeze and intermittent snow showers in the forecast through Thursday in New England. The storm pattern takes energy from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic at this time, but …
Long Term Views 3/3
A little late to the blog tonight given the active forecast this week…the storm tonight/Saturday will be the last big storm for about a week, at least. Temperatures in the week ahead will be close to seasonable. Some lower base areas will deal with a freeze/thaw cycle as temperatures move above freezing during the day …
The Week Ahead 2/27
It seemingly took forever but this is the first week that the ONI Index is ENSO neutral. It’s the first time we’ve been here for nearly three years. Better late than never, but it would’ve been nice for this to happen a month ago… The effects of transitioning to ENSO neutral have already been seen …
Long Term Trends 2/24
The overall trend is a cooler March for most; though it’s a bit tumultuous to start. In the next 7 days, we’ll have a fair amount of warmth from the Mid-Atlantic and south with the southeast ridge in place. Notoriously, the GFS handles the southeast ridge better than the Euro, therefore I’ll be hedging my …
Long Term Trends 2/17
The warmth is behind us after the strong cold front came through Friday. This coming week will be more of a transition week before we start seeing a colder pattern settle in. We’ll have a couple quick systems come through, followed by a strong system Thursday/Friday which will be a mixed precipitation event for most. …