The old March saying is “in like a lion, out like a lamb” – I’m going to switch that up and say “in like a lamb, out like a lion” because we have some interesting movements in the teleconnections right now.
I don’t think this will be a March 2018 repeat (unfortunately) when we had 4 nor’easters in a row in the Northeast. I happened to be doing my first round of client visits in southern VT while Tony was finishing up his last year forecasting before retirement. I was at Mount Snow on 3/7 as the 2nd of 4 storms came in, getting a very snowy tour from Kevin Harrington. From there I had a meeting at Bromley, before the storm truly arrived and was completely snowed into my lodging in Winhall, VT.
My car is on the left in the photo above. With a very appropriate license plate. And happy to say now I have a 4WD car as a direct result of this trip. I lasted 7 winters in Maine without it, but Vermont did me in. I believe Mount Snow recorded over 30″ in that storm. There was 26″ on my car. All of this fell in a 16 hour time span.
Anyways, enough down memory lane of real, monster snowstorms that actually come to fruition. Let’s look at how maybe we can get something to resemble this in the near future. We highlighted the time frame of Mar 7-10 in the blog last week, as the Euro EPO was already highlighting a negative trend toward the second week of the month. That has continued, and despite a brief reprieve after into the 11-12, it looks like we’ll have another round of negative EPO for the middle to the end of the month.
What this means for us is an eastern trough. That provides a favorable path for storms to take as they dig across the country. What we still don’t have is a negative Arctic Oscillation, which means I don’t see March being overly cold. Maybe seasonably cool but not cold. We also still have a positive North Atlantic Oscillation, but it’s “less positive” going into the middle of the month, which means blocking may hang on just long enough for us to see something good come along. This probably eliminates big snow for PA, but for Hunter & north, we could see winter’s revenge as we inch closer to the equinox.
The models have already been hinting at something in that March 6-7 time frame. Most keep it offshore, but we’re still a little far out to see all the elements come together. Plus, this is the season of monster storms in the 5-6 day timeframe that never happen, so I rather buck this trend and have it not look amazing right now. They’re also already seeing something around March 12.
With it being so far out, what I’m looking for more is the trend and the activity of the pattern, more than the placement of low pressures and precipitation type. If the trend of this season is any indication of the March 6-7 event, the low will shift north and west, which ironically would put us in a great place for snow. And because it doesn’t hurt to live a bit in the past… it is also nearly 2 years to the date of the photos above (would’ve been exactly the same days without Leap Day this year).
A few images to finish – one of the Euro Ensemble EPO, and the other is the weeklies EPO – showing volatility. Again these are ensembles so we’re getting every possibility in the spectrum, but there are trends to see.
There’s a strong consensus on the dip later this week, followed by a rebound (though minimal) into early next week – but it looks like we return to negative around the 12th, and may stay there for a week or two, with not much change until early April. Which all sounds good, with two trips to Vermont planned this month.
All in all it looks like March may be the month we could take back winter (after the first few days). And yes, there’s some shower activity and even rain in the forecast before we get to this potential March rebound. While the skiing has been phenomenal this season, it has been to the credit of snowmaking, grooming, and skilled mountain teams taking some awful forecasts I’ve had to deliver, and turning out a gorgeous product – like the ice, rain and wind never happened.