While next week certainly looks below average to start, especially with a possible wintry system arriving on Tuesday, there’s some consensus that we finish the week off well below average. Moving into the final week of the month, there’s less agreement on if the eastern trough hangs tough (which has been the trend for the last couple of winters, for cooler air masses and patterns to linger longer into April and even May), or if the ridge begins to build in.

Both models have been flip flopping on the idea, but if we go with recent climatology, we’ll be in the GFS camp.

GFS Extended 500 Height Anomaly 4/22-4/29
Euro Weeklies 500mb Height Anomaly 4/22-4/29