Overall the start of March is going to be rather quiet. We have no major systems that will come through during the week, and eyes will be on the weekend for a (likely) warm system.
A couple clippers come through with light snow – one on Tuesday and another Wednesday night into Thursday. These will graze the Great Lakes and then move into New England. Behind them, we’ll have subsequent cold shots but not all are terribly deep – they’ll likely cool down northern New England significantly, but certainly not as we head farther south toward the Mid-Atlantic for the midweek. The cold shot behind Thursday’s system should be the deepest and move down the spine of the Appalachians.
That sets the stage for the system coming in on Saturday. The structure has been a bit discombobulated, and it’s been tough to see whether it’ll be one stronger system or two weaker ones. The key feature will be how strong the high pressure in Quebec/Ontario will be and that will determine the precipitation type. I do anticipate this having a mixed or rain component regardless of location – however the NAO and AO start to dip negative on 3/7, so there are contradictions in the model data, which means the cold to the north may have more of an impact than what we’re seeing currently. Will continue to update on this one…