Just a quick update given the active forecast over the next 48 hours.
The long term remains on course with a cold rest of January expected. Looking at the GFS, it’s holding onto the cold a little longer into February. In the long range, the GFS will more easily see the cold than the Euro (which will see warm forever). Something interesting to keep an eye on is the AO (Arctic Oscillation).
Notice the mean is staying negative for the first week of the month, which would indicate cold air remaining in the region. Eventually we’ll have to flip the other way out of this cold. It is only a matter of time…but the longer it is, the more likely we swing harder the other way. Right now it looks like we should start seeing a transition during the first 10 days of February.