It’s our warm day of the week. Temperatures today will continue to sit in the 40’s and 50’s throughout the region. Our front comes back through on Saturday with temperatures dropping down into snowmaking ranges for parts of New England heading into Saturday night and Sunday. However the depth of this cold air is fairly shallow, and cuts off closer to the southern border of VT/NH.
Moving through Sunday, we’ll see a bit of cold air damming develop, which holds in some of the cold air as the incoming system arrives. The damming will slowly erode as we move into Monday morning, but there’s still the chance of some wet snow before sunrise on Monday. Rainfall is likely to be around .50″ with this system moving through. It will exit the area Monday afternoon and temperatures begin to crash shortly thereafter. Again, this will not be a very deep batch of cold air. The bulk of the coldest air stays into central & southern VT/NH & ME, though the overall cold air mass extends down to the Mid-Atlantic.
For the Great Lakes, we have the cooler air settling in today and will continue into the weekend. A wave of energy will pass to the south of MI Sunday, with some rain/snow showers possible on Monday. We warm up again Tuesday with an incoming system – which may start as snow – but should eventually change to rain before it moves out Wednesday. However, there is the possibility of some accumulating snowfall before that.
As that moves into New England, we’ll see this cold air erode quickly into our low pressure system arriving for Thanksgiving day. While still nearly a week out, it does look like it will follow the pattern of a warmer system. There’s no indication of blocking or suppressed cold air at this point. While we may start out as snow in a few higher elevation areas, it is unlikely we’ll see it stick around for the entire storm. Warmth will then stay with us through Thanksgiving weekend, until a front comes through late Saturday/early Sunday.
I’ll have more in that in our Long Term Views via video a little later on this afternoon.